PhD Research Fellowship in Conflict Prediction and Early Warning

The Centre for Research on Peace and Development (CRPD) is a multidisciplinary research centre within the Faculty of Social Sciences at KU Leuven. Its research focuses on understanding the causes and dynamics of violent conflict, social cohesion, governance, and the challenges of building sustainable peace. CRPD brings together researchers from different disciplinary backgrounds, including political science, sociology, public management, anthropology and communication studies. The successful candidate will be based at CRPD and will work in close collaboration with the Augment research group, which brings expertise in developing AI systems that are transparent, explainable and useful to human analysts. This collaboration offers a unique environment in which insights from political and social science are combined with state-of-the-art computational approaches. Project KU Leuven is looking for a doctoral researcher to join COMPASS (Conflict Onset Monitoring through Predictive Analysis of Societal Stress), an interdisciplinary research collaboration between the Centre for Research on Peace and Development (CRPD) at the Faculty of Social Sciences and the Augment research group at the Department of Computer Science. The project is funded by the Belgian Defence-related Research Action (DEFRA) and combines expertise in conflict and peace research with expertise in human-centred explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). The COMPASS project aims to develop an innovative early warning system that enables defence and intelligence analysts to monitor, understand and predict societal trajectories, including processes of conflict escalation and de-escalation. Recognising that violent conflict rarely emerges without underlying societal tensions, the project seeks to identify and analyse the conditions and processes that contribute to societal instability, mobilisation and, potentially, violent conflict, as well as those that facilitate de-escalation and sustainable peace. As part of this interdisciplinary research project, the successful candidate will contribute to the conceptual and empirical development of COMPASS. The position offers an opportunity to engage with different disciplinary perspectives and to explore how insights from political and social science can be combined with innovative computational and AI-based approaches to advance our understanding of conflict dynamics. We welcome applicants with a strong interest in conflict and peace research, societal resilience, political instability and the application of innovative analytical approaches to understanding societal trajectories. Profile
• The applicant should have completed a Master's degree in political science, international relations, sociology, development studies, peace and conflict studies, or another closely related discipline. An interdisciplinary background combining social sciences with data science, computer science or related fields is an asset.
• The applicant should have an excellent academic track record, with very strong results in their Master's degree.
• A strong interest in the causes and dynamics of violent conflict, social unrest, political instability, peacebuilding and/or societal resilience. Demonstrated knowledge of conflict analysis and/or conflict prediction and early warning, for instance through coursework, a Master’s thesis, research experience or relevant professional experience, is a strong asset.
• Strong quantitative research skills, including solid training in statistical analysis and/or econometrics, and experience in analysing large-scale datasets (e.g. event data, survey data or time-series cross-sectional data).
• Strong quantitative data management skills, including experience in collecting, cleaning, merging and structuring complex datasets from multiple sources. Experience with machine learning, computational text analysis or large language models is an asset.
• Excellent written and oral communication skills in English.
• The ability to work both independently and collaboratively in an interdisciplinary and international research environment.
• Strong motivation to contribute to high-quality academic research and to disseminate research findings through scientific publications and conferences. As part of the application process, applicants must submit a research statement (maximum two pages). In this statement, they should briefly reflect on the strengths and limitations of existing conflict prediction and early warning models and approaches, and present concrete ideas on how these could be improved, for instance through the use of generative AI. Applicants are also encouraged to discuss the methodological and ethical challenges associated with the approaches they propose, including data quality, bias, validation and transparency. The research statement is not expected to be a fully developed research proposal, but it should demonstrate originality, familiarity with the relevant literature and the ability to think critically about how innovative computational approaches can advance conflict prediction and early warning. Your Electronic Application Must Include
• Cover letter.
• Curriculum vitae (CV).
• Research statement (maximum two pages; see above).
• Copy of your Master's thesis.
• Full academic transcripts (both Bachelor's and Master's degrees). Shortlisted candidates will be invited for an interview. Offer
• You will join an internationally oriented and multidisciplinary research team at KU Leuven's Centre for Research on Peace and Development (CRPD).
• You will work on an innovative interdisciplinary research project funded by the Belgian Defence-related Research Action (DEFRA), involving close collaboration between CRPD and the Augment research group at KU Leuven.
• You will receive a doctoral scholarship in line with KU Leuven standards and applicable funding conditions. The position is envisaged for up to four years, subject to satisfactory progress and the applicable contractual arrangements.
• The position offers opportunities to develop expertise at the intersection of political and social science, conflict research, data analysis and artificial intelligence.
• You will receive academic supervision and support in developing your doctoral research, publishing in international peer-reviewed journals and presenting your work at international academic conferences.
• You will benefit from opportunities for methodological training, interdisciplinary research collaboration and engagement with academic and non-academic stakeholders.
• You will become part of a dynamic research environment committed to high-quality academic research and contributing to a better understanding of the causes of conflict and the conditions for sustainable peace.
• A full-time
- position as PhD researcher (doctoral scholarship) for one year, which upon positive evaluation, will be extended with three additional years. More information on scholarship and benefits for KU Leuven PhD students can be found here under 'working conditions' at: Https://www.kuleuven.be/personeel/jobsite/en/phd/phd-information. Interested? For more information please contact Prof. dr. Arnim Langer, mail: arnim.langer@kuleuven.be. You can apply for this position no later than 4 January 2027. Shortlisted candidates will be invited for an interviews on 11 or 12 January 2027 You can apply for this job no later than January 04, 2027 via the online application tool KU Leuven strives for an inclusive, respectful and socially safe environment. We embrace diversity among individuals and groups as an asset. Open dialogue and differences in perspective are essential for an ambitious research and educational environment. In our commitment to equal opportunity, we recognize the consequences of historical inequalities. We do not accept any form of discrimination based on, but not limited to, gender identity and expression, sexual orientation, age, ethnic or national background, skin colour, religious and philosophical diversity, neurodivergence, employment disability, health, or socioeconomic status. For questions about accessibility or support offered, we are happy to assist you at this email address.
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